Let's check the numbers.
Wisconsin's men's basketball team has won 16 straight games, is 6-0 in the Big Ten, is 20-1 overall, and is ranked No. 2 in the nation. OK, then it makes perfect sense to assume the Badgers will win at Iowa Sunday afternoon.
So I'm picking Iowa.
Why? Homerism? Shock value? Nay and nay. This simply feels like one of those trap games. First, every college basketball team loses at least hree or four games a season. It didn't used to be that way, but no one blitzes through conference seasons unbeaten and takes records of something like 29-1 into the NCAAs. Wisconsin is going to lose a Big Ten game sooner or later, and when it happens it will be on the road.
Second, this will be the most jazzed a Carver-Hawkeye Arena crowd gets for a game all season. The opponent is marquee, it's on CBS, and it's one of those defining moments in a season for a team. I have now just used "trap game" and "defining moment" in consecutive paragraphs. That's a nice run on modern-day sports cliches. Can "work-ethic" and "impact player" be far behind?
Third, there's something about being the road team in a noon game that doesn't sit well. The Badgers will have bussed into Iowa City Saturday night, then will eat breakfast Sunday morning before going to Carver. Breakfast, bus legs and basketball don't go together.
Fourth, Rick Reilly has a column about Wisconsin Coach Bo Ryan in the latest Sports Illustrated. It isn't the same as the SI cover jinx, but it's a rule that if a columnist sings someone's praises, that someone will look very mortal the next time he or she has a game.
Fifth, Iowa needs this win so very, very much. If it loses this "defining moment" before a capacity crowd, it's going to be very difficult to get people to care about this team the rest of the season. The Hawkeyes are 11-9 overall, 3-3 in the Big Ten, but the only good team they've beaten all season was Michigan State at home by two points. If Iowa wins this game, its contest at Michigan Wednesday night is meaningful back home. If the Hawkeyes lose, maybe some of you will be more inclined to watch NBC's terrific "Friday Night Lights" than the Iowa game.
I won't be watching Iowa-Michigan, but that's because I'm a Mediacom subscriber and I don't get Sinclair Broadcasting station KGAN-TV in my home. Hey, FCC, when it's time to renew television stations' licenses, does that "serving the public interest" deal really factor into things? I'm guessing not.