November 2007 - Posts
Conference title games, rivalry games, Hlastradamus doesn't care. He coldly calculates the results, and you get the benefit of his brilliance.
1. TENNESSEE + 7.5 vs. LSU
2. ARIZONA STATE -7 vs. Arizona
3. OKLAHOMA -3 vs. Missouri
4. VIRGINIA TECH -4.5 vs. Boston College
5. STANFORD +13 vs. California
6. WEST VIRGINIA -28.5 vs. Pittsburgh
7. HAWAII -14 vs. Washington
The regular-season, that is.
Your prophet delivered yet another winning week last week with a 4-3 for a glowing season mark of 42-33-2. That is so money, baby.
But since there are barely more than seven college games this week, this is going to take an extra day of deep meditation and deep-dish pizza.
Frankly, none of the lines look good right now. Hlastradamus will not be pressured to choose any line before its time.
Check back tomorrow. Repeatedly, if you know what's good for you.
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND, Texas -- Iowa junior forward Cyrus Tate is being held out of tonight's Hawkeyes-Utah State game because of a concussion suffered in Friday's loss to Bradley.
Tate could probably have played tonight, but was being withheld as a precaution, with Iowa facing Wake Forest at home Monday night.
So, expect to see double-digit minutes for little-used 6-foot-9 David Palmer, the Seton Hall transfer who was a Prime Time League scoring machine but apprently hasn't worked his way into the hearts of the Iowa coaching staff. At least not enough to earn playing time.
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND, Texas -- Come to South Padre Island during Thanksgiving Week, and escape the throngs.
The crowd at Friday night's Iowa-Bradley and Vanderbilt-Utah State games at the South Padre Invitational men's basketball tourney was about 350. The tourney listed the attendance as 850. I don't know how 850 people could have fit into the South Padre Island Convention Centre room used for the games.
The playing floor is perched atop a tile floor. The chairs look more suitable for a hotel ballroom than a makeshift gym.
No complaints here, mind you. I've always loved college basketball venues that are 50 yards from a bay, are connected to a nature trail, and have a birding information center.
As for the island itself, it's very roomy this weekend. You can see how it would mob up during the several weeks it's used for Spring Break. But to see all the big condo buildings and the many hotels and motels sitting mostly empty is kind of weird.
It's easy to see why this is a popular place with young and old alike during good weather, which is virtually all the time except for the three days I'm spending here. The fishing and windsurfing and beaches are all great, it's a very clean town, and it isn't particularly expensive.
This is written 90 minutes before the Iowa-Utah State third-place game here. It isn't being televised. Based on what I heard about the production values of the Iowa-Bradley telecast, it's no loss.
All in all, I'd rather be sailing. If the weather were more suitable, that is.
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND, Texas -- Unless you really love attending college basketball games, do not envy the few of us who are here for the South Padre Island Invitational.
If you wish you were at a tropical locale on this late November day, wish for Honolulu, Ocho Rios, Bali or Bermuda. South Padre, which normally is in the 70s and even 80s at this time of year, is no place to be today.
The temperatures are in the 50s. It has rained all day. The wind is blowing like crazy. I really didn't think "windchill" would be a term that would pound in my head once I got down here, but this isn't good.
My hotel room is a block from the Gulf of Mexico or the Laguna Madre Bay. I don't know which is which here, and it doesn't matter, because I can't see the water because of all the rain. Isn't that kooky?
On the desk in my room is an advertisement for Golf on the Gulf, an invitation to play South Padre Island Golf Club, called one of the top 20 courses in America that you can play by Golf Magazine.
Carved from a rough-hewn stretch of the Laguna Madre, South Padre Island is a secure oasis of tranquility and peace of mind.
Yeah, right. Maybe some other day. I woke up this morning set to try to play 18 holes somewhere. Not if I need goggles and a life raft to do it, however.
So there's really nothing else to do here but go inside and watch basketball. Swell. The afternoon games of Austin Peay vs. Florida Gulf Coast and Maryland Eastern Shore vs. Valparaiso had crowds in the dozens.
Iowa plays Bradley tonight. I hope there's heat in the South Padre Island Convention Centre.
This isn't Spring Break, boys and girls. This is, however, what the tail end of a hurricane may look like.
Hlastradamus went 4-3 last week for a season-record of 38-20-2. That's 55.9 percent to the good, which doesn't leave much if you're paying a 10 percent vig to the casino (or an illegal source, which would be a very naughty thing for you to be doing, so cut it out).
But it's better than losing.
So expect at least four - and probably seven - winners among these seven picks:
1. TEXAS -5.5 at Texas A&M. The Aggies are down. Friday, they'll be out.
2. BOISE STATE +3 at Hawaii. Hate to pick against my Rainbow Warriors, but Boise is the first truly good team Hawaii has faced.
3. MISSOURI +2 vs. Kansas. As glorious a season as its been for Kansas, Hlastradamus thinks Missouri has a better team. Why else would he pick the Tigers?
4. UCLA +2.5 vs. Oregon. The Ducks are quacking up.
5. WESTERN MICHIGAN -11.5 vs. Temple. Hlastradamus saw Western's quarterback and running back and receivers last Saturday at Iowa. He was impressed.
6. NORTH CAROLINA -14 vs. Duke. If you can't give Notre Dame a game, how are you going to give one to a juggernaut like the Tar Heels?
7. AUBURN -6 vs. Auburn. It's the Iron Bowl, but Auburn's the only one of these two teams with the mettle to prevail.
The Hlog will be at Iowa's basketball games at the South Padre Invitational Friday and Saturday. If it doesn't have a home in the Gazette paper or online editions, we'll make room for it here.
If South Padre Island has Internet access, that is. You never know when a stray hurricane is likely to blow through.
Here's what I think: UNI will be playing football in December. I also think the sky is blue, grass is green, and one of the craziest things I've ever seen in football was that 51-yard field goal by Cleveland's Phil Dawson that sent the Browns into overtime Sunday at Baltimore.
The Panthers' No. 1 seed in the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision earned them a game against the 16th seed. That's 7-4 New Hampshire, which has lost two of its last three games.
This means UNI will host either Delaware or Delaware State in the quarterfinals, and seem to set up for a rematch with Southern Illinois in the cards for the second week of December. That winner will go to the national-title game in Chattanooga, Tenn.
New Hampshire is coming off a 39-14 win over Maine. That's 4-7 Maine, which will play its next game next Aug. 30 at Iowa.
I can wait.
Hlastradamus was 4-3 vs. the spread last week, which is good enough if you want to eat. OK, you'll only afford cheeseburgers instead of caviar, but who really enjoys fish eggs?
With a season record of 34-27-2 (not bad, not bad), here come seven surefire picks to improve your menu to a nice piece of fish, eggs excluded.
1. IOWA -14 vs. Western Michigan. As uninspiring as the Hawkeyes' offense is, Western Michigan is the worst cover team in America at 1-7-1 against the number.
2. IOWA STATE +27 at Kansas. The Jayhawks are 9-0 vs. the spread. But the Cyclones have covered four weeks in a row, including against Oklahoma and Missouri. Twenty-seven is a big, big number.
3. MICHIGAN STATE +3 vs. Penn State. What is Michigan State playing for? A Motor City Bowl bid. It will try to win, anyway.
4. ILLINOIS -13.5 vs. Northwestern. The Illini will ride the wave, dudes.
5. INDIANA + 2.5 vs. Purdue. One of these two teams is going to want this more than the other. That team is Indiana.
6. NOTRE DAME -6 vs. Duke. It's Duke. Duke. Do you hear Hlastradamus? It's Duke.
7. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +4 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette. FIU is 0-9. ULL is 1-9. This is Florida International's chance to end the nation's longest losing streak and become Florida Global.
Under no circumstances can I see Iowa going to a bowl lower in the Big Ten's pecking order than the Insight should it defeat Western Michigan Saturday and improve to 7-5.
The top five slots would go to, in no particular order, Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Penn State. The Insight gets the sixth pick from the Big Ten, after the Rose, Capital One, Outback, Alamo and Champs Sports. Would the Insight take an 8-4 Purdue (assuming the Boilermakers win at Indiana Saturday)? Why? To have 5,000 fans from Purdue instead of heaven knows how many supporting Iowa?
Would the Insight take a 7-5 Michigan State (if it beats Penn State Saturday), a 7-5 Indiana (if it beats Purdue) or a 7-5 Northwestern (if it beats Illinois - ha!)? No, no, and not on your life.
If Michigan beats Ohio State for the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl berth and another BCS bowl still chose Ohio State (unlikely, but possible) , then Iowa would move up a spot to the Champs Sports.
But it's the Insight. Tempe. Tens of thousands of Iowa fans on Mill Street for New Year's Eve. A windfall for the game, which has never drawn as many as 49,000 fans in its history that stretches back to its Copper Bowl debut in 1989. You think Iowa in greater Phoenix wouldn't top 49,000 fans? Is there an Iowan without a relative or friend in Arizona?
If the Hawkeyes do end up in that game and I cover it for the Gazette, I may not come home until spring training's over.
As for possible Iowa opponents in the Insight - if we're going to get way ahead of ourselves, let's go all the way - rest assured it won't be an especially good one. The Insight gets the No. 6 Big 12 team, and that conference seems a decent bet to send two teams to BCS games, making the Insight No. 7. The bowl would probably want a Southwestern representative, a Texas or Oklahoma school.
Forget about good teams like Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas. Texas Tech played in last year's Insight Bowl and probably wouldn't be wanted back so soon. That could mean a 6-6 Oklahoma State. Or a 6-6 Texas A&M with a lame-duck coach in Dennis Franchione. Or a 6-6 Kansas State if the Wildcats can win one of its last two games against Missouri or Fresno State. The winner of the Nov. 23 Nebraska-Colorado game will be 6-6.
The NFL Network, which carries the Insight Bowl (Why? Why? Why?) probably wouldn't want a Nebraska-Iowa game, for demographic purposes. Two lightly populated Midwest states that border each other? It would play well in Council Bluffs, but not in most of America. Not that most of America gets the NFL Network, anyhow.
At any rate, this year's Insight Bowl would be forgettable for 96 percent of the nation. But if Iowa's a participant, it will be manna from heaven for the merchants of Tempe, Scottsdale, Mesa and Phoenix.
Last week wasn't wonderful. It wasn't even competent. Hlastradamus was Hlastradummy at 2-4-1, lowering his season record to 30-24-2.
But this week it's as if the oddsmakers have opened up a gated community called Easy Street to us. Let's roll.
1. CINCINNATI -6 vs. Connecticut. The Huskies are ranked. The Bearcats are better.
2. IOWA STATE +4.5 vs. Colorado. Cyclones have covered three straight weeks, and by double-digit margins each time. They're a home dog against a team coming off a 55-10 home loss. Hlastradamus likey.
3. TENNESSEE -1 vs. Arkansas. Homefield. Hold McFadden to less than 200 rushing yards, and the Hogs are stuck in the mud.
4. IOWA -14.5 vs. Minnesota. Iowa has a hard time scoring 15 points vs. no opposition, but Minnesota's defense isn't as good as no opposition. Gophers allow 40 a game in Big Ten play, and score nothing close to 40. That's a team waiting to be toe-tagged.
5. NEBRASKA +7.5 vs. Kansas State. This is a pick that takes courage. What could possibly motivate the Cornhuskers to do anything other than what they've been doing the last several weeks, which is roll over. Answer: They know the current coach is getting canned no matter what, so maybe now they loosen up and play some ball against a K-State team that has peaked and is veering away from a bowl.
6. OKLAHOMA STATE +5.5 vs. Kansas. What????? Kansas is the only team in America, pro or college, that's undefeated against the spread, and one of three FBS teams undefeated, period. But the Cowboys are well-versed in scoring shootouts this year, and can match shot for shot with the Kansas gunslingers. You like those puns?
7. MICHIGAN -2.5 at Wisconsin. The reason this selection is last is because your prophet is less confident about it than any other. But Michigan loves those Big Ten teams with traditional offenses. Wisconsin's is as traditional as turkey at Thanksgiving. So, the Wolverines could stuff the Badgers.
Now off you go.
and Hello, either Orlando or Phoenix. Unless, that is, Iowa loses to either Minnesota or Western Michigan in its final two football games.
Survey says ... Phoenix! Tempe, to be precise.
Orlando, home of the Champs Sports Bowl, has one serious drawback. Namely, it's Orlando. A great city if you're 8 years old or a cartoon mouse. Not so good if you think theme parks' main theme is to provide a blight on our landscape.
Tempe is a terrific college town in a major metropolitan area. It's pretty. Mill Street is a nice place in the center of town for adults to gather, something Orlando lacks. With Arizona State on break for the holidays, Iowans could have Tempe all to itself for the Insight Bowl.
Plus, the Hawkeyes would play a Big 12 team in that game. It's too bad Nebraska doesn't have another win or two. Heh heh heh.
After last week's simply sensational 6-1 session (thanks to some sage use of the skull from a pigskin savant on the Left Coast), Hlastradamus is putting on his pointy thinking cap and coming up with seven more gems for Saturday.
1. Connecticut -2 vs. Rutgers: Be nice to Rutgers on your way up, UConn, because you'll be seeing them on your way down next season.
2. South Florida -5 vs. Cincinnati: South Florida is still a very good team after two straight tough losses on the road. This will be a game to remove frustration against a Cincinnati club that peaked.
3. Iowa State +14.5 vs. Kansas State: The Cyclones have shown Hlastradamus something the last two weeks in easily covering against perhaps the Big 12's two best teams in Oklahoma and MIssouri. This is a lot of points at home against a K-State team that is good, but not great.
4. Notre Dame -3 vs. Navy: We're taking seven home teams this week. This is the only one with a 43-game winning streak against its opponent.
5. Oklahoma State +3 vs. Texas: The Cowboys have been pretty tall in the saddle ever since Coach Mike Gundy went cuckoo several weeks ago. They're playing for a Big 12 South title and not telling anyone about it. Until today.
6. Colorado +4 vs. Missouri: This feels like a possible long walk on a short pier, but the Buffaloes are coming along nicely under Dan Hawkins.
7. Boston College -6.5 vs. Florida State: Hlastradamus knows BC doesn't belong in the BCS title game. He also knows the Eagles' comeuppance will come at Clemson in two weeks, not Saturday night at home in an ABC game against a nothing-special Florida State foe.