Currently,
I'm in Louisville, Kentucky, attending a workshop hosted by the
Election Center - a
nonprofit organization dedicated to promoting, preserving, and
improving democracy. Its members are government employees whose
profession is to serve in voter registration and elections
administration.
About
72 election professionals are attending the workshop. I think Ryan
from Utah is probably the person who traveled the farthest to be
here.
While
the workshop lectures are very informative, I find the conversations
over lunch and dinner and breaks to be just as informative. During
the welcome reception last night, I was fielding lots of questions
about the Iowa caucuses from Bonnie and Winn from North Carolina
(NC).
NC is
scheduled to hold its presidential primary in May. Imagine for a
moment what the residents of NC are missing ... no presidential
candidate rallies – no campaign flyers showing up in mailboxes –
and no phone calls from candidates. Some Iowans would think, “how
boring” and some would think, “that would be heaven”.
Ironically, North Carolina's late primary may get lots of attention
from the Democratic candidates. It could be the state that pushes
one of the candidates over the top in delegates.
One of
the themes I have been preaching to my staff is my belief that this
upcoming presidential election is going to be the biggest, the most
scrutinized, and the most important election that has occurred in our
lifetime. That same theme is being expressed at this workshop and
an AP-Ipsos poll added credibility to that theme.
The February 7th – 10th Associated
Press – Ipsos poll of 1,029 adults (with an error rate of +/- 3.5%)
indicated:
In a
Clinton versus McCain election, Clinton would get 46% of the vote to
McCain's 45%. In an Obama versus
McCain election, Obama would get 48% of the vote to McCain's 42%.
The
most important aspect of this poll – at least for election
administrators - is NOT who is projected to win. The most important
aspect for election administrators is the projection that the
election is going to be close, i.e., 6% is still very close. And
that's why I believe this is election is going to be the “most
scrutinized” election we have ever experienced. What do you think?
--Joel @ 11:50pm CST